题目：Potential Output Pessimism and Excessive Austerity in the European Union

　　报告人：旷裴，Senior Lecturer (Associate Professor) in Macroeconomics, University of Birmingham (UK)

　　时间：2017年12月18日(周一) 14：00 ～ 15：30

　　地点：经管院 B228

　　报告摘要如下：

　　A business cycle model with learning is developed to analyze the role of potential output pessimism and the `debt brake' in the EU recession since the 2007-08 financial crisis, allowing for policy makers' uncertainty in estimating potential output. The paper documents important evidence on policy makers' perceived evolution of potential output, output gap and structural balance for a number of EU countries since 2004 and shows the model quantitatively replicates the evidence. The model suggests that the Great Recession led to over-pessimism about potential output which largely amplified the initial adverse shocks and underestimation of structural balances which triggered excessive fiscal austerity. The mutual reinforcement between potential output pessimism and excessive fiscal austerity contributed significantly to the prolonged recession in the EU. The analysis suggests that placing a moderate weight to new data to form estimates of potential output minimizes real-time mis-measurement of output gap and that placing this weight to the data during the Great Recession period would have led to a less severe recession.

　　报告人简介：

　　旷裴博士目前是伯明翰大学的副教授。本科毕业于中国人民大学，硕士毕业于University of Freiburg (Germany)，博士毕业于Goethe University Frankfurt. 研究方向是宏观金融与货币经济学。在Journal of Monetary Economics, Economics Letters, Macroeconomic Dynamics, NBER Macroeconomics Annual和European Economic Review等期刊上发表论文。